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Asset Prices, Returns and Investments
  

Topical: Growth in house prices remained low in March
Price growth in the value of middle-segment homes (small, medium-sized and large houses) in the South African housing market for which Absa approved mortgage finance (see explanatory notes), remained at a relatively low level on a year-on-year (y/y) basis up to March 2011. The slowing pace of year-on-year house price growth recorded in the first three months of the year is believed to be related to the base effect of a recovery in home values in the same period last year. Marginal monthly price growth was evident in two of the three categories of housing measured by the Absa house price indices. Real year-on-year price declines occurred in the segments of medium-sized and large houses in the first two months of the year, while real price growth in respect of small houses edging down further in February this year. Real house price calculations are based on headline consumer price inflation, which measured 3,7% y/y in January and February this year. ... [Absa Bank]
0407

Further reading on on this section at the FSF Bookshop
e.g. David Darst,
The Art of Asset Allocation.

 

The new Financial Sector Forum Website

The new Financial Sector Forum at http://www.financialsectorforum.com will, in time, consolidate two existing websites: The existing Financial Sector Forum at http://www.finforum.co.za (here) and South Africa: Financial Institutional Structure at http://reservebanksa.blogspot.com. This action was necessitated by a lack of funding.
Recent posts on the new Financial Sector Forum website include:

South African bank directory
Malfunction of banks can sink global economy
The National Payment System Framework and Strategy
Absa: Household mortgage debt
SA Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin
Nedbank Weekly Economic Monitor
Absa: SA Morning Sheet – daily economic comment
Online fraudsters target Rugby World Cup
Tainted credit records depress house market
Nedbank: Mining production
Nedbank: Manufacturing production
Absa: House price indices
Nedbank: SA Reserves
Nedbank Weekly Economic Monitor
Time to get credit rules roadworthy
E&Y Financial services index
Composite business cycle indicators for South Africa
Absa: Mortgage advances
Nedbank: Trade data

This site also links to sister website, The Financial Regulation Forum at http://www.financialregulationforum.com

The Financial Regulation Forum Website

Recent posts on the new Financial Regulation Forum website include:

Macroprudential policy - the things we don’t know
Banking reforms: Ring-fence structure
The Independent Commission on Banking: Final Report
Immediate Funds Transfer: A Central Bank Perspective
Press conference: ECB Monetary policy decisions
Enhancing financial stability
The future of central banking
Mobile wallet payment system
Financial Stability Board: Shadow Banking
Why did nobody stop Gordon Brown?
Weekend discussion item: Bank of Political Works

March
2010

ABSA Bank - Housing Review 2011 Q1
The South African economy recovered in 2010 after the recession of 2009, supported by the global recovery, growing domestic demand, and low inflation and interest rates. Real GDP growth of just below 4% is forecast for 2011. • Despite the positive effect of declining inflation and interest rates in 2010, the household sector was plagued by continued job losses in most sectors of the economy up to late last year, while the ratio of household debt to disposable remained high at just below 79%. • House prices continued to rise in 2010 after bottoming in mid-2009, but last year was a tale of two halves, with both nominal and real price growth in the second half of the year being significantly lower in the middle segment of the market compared with the first six months of the year.  ... more

December
2010

Standard Bank - Residential Property Gauge  (PDF)
Unlikely to prosper
The smoothed median value of Standard Bank’s residential property book, which reflects the general residential property environment and Standard Bank specific strategies, declined further in November when a growth rate of 4.8% y/y was reported. Base effects from last year, when the median house price declined relatively strongly, have kept growth relatively buoyant. Clearly, with the economy in the doldrums, the still-high debt levels of households, a fragile labour market and general uncertainty, the residential property market is unlikely to prosper. Nevertheless, the property market can take consolation from the lowest interest rates in more than three decades, improved debt affordability, a benign inflation forecast for the next three years, and relatively healthy increases in household wealth in H1:10. It is expected that the residential property market will show modest growth over the next six months. ... more
ABSA Bank - Property Trends
These brief publications provide periodic information on trends in the residential housing market, e.g: Property Investment; House Price Index; Building statistics; House Price Index; Mortgage advances.
Sharenet - [SA] share prices and trading
Sharenet has been providing JSE prices to South Africans since 1988 and has offered Internet trading since 1999. Our experience in this market is unrivaled – investors all over South Africa and the world have relied on us for nearly 20 years as their primary source of reliable financial information.
  FIN24.co.za - Prices and markets (domestic and international)
  Provides a mechanism for obtaining prices, company reports and other information on specific stocks and warrants traded on the JSE Securities Exchange. Information on currencies and the economy in general is also provided.
NB You need to register (no charge).
Data on all the indices can be obtained by signing up (free) as a user of the JSE Website.
For information about indices see JSE indices.
  South African Futures Exchange - Market Data and Statistics
 

SAFEX, which is now part of the JSE Securities Exchange, provides the latest financial and agricultural futures marked-to-market closing prices; data on financial and agricultural trading provided through links to files, in tabular form, that can be downloaded.

  Bond Market Exchange of South Africa - Bond Market Statistics
 

The Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA) lists rand-denominated debt securities issued by central and local government, public enterprises and major corporates.
BESA in collaboration with the Actuarial Society of South Africa has launched a series of bond indices, known as the Total Return Indices (TRIs).
Bond statistics are available on a daily and histotical basis.

Sharenet - Prices of SA listed bonds/gilts
A single table provides the code, name, yield and all-in and clean prices of bonds listed on the Bond Exchange of South Africa.
ACI - Association of Collective Investments
The Association of Collective Investments (ACI) is the body representing all collective investments (eg unit trusts) management companies. The Association provides, inter alia: unit trust classification; a unit trust directory; performance statistics; news and events; codes of practice; and information on the industry and education.
FindanAdvisor.co.za - South African Directory of financial planners and financial advisors
FindanAdvisor is an online directory of: Financial Services Board (FSB) approved financial advisors, financial planners, Certified Financial Planners (CFP s) and investment, retirement and insurance brokers. It is an independent directory and not affiliated in any way to any financial institution or product house. All listed Financial Advisors are accredited with the FSB.

July
2008

HB Falkena - Notes on Wealth Management  (PDF 600KB)
Every level of wealth creates its own specific problems. Although many people may think that a million dollars would solve most of their problems, millionaires themselves know better. For instance, the rich are generally more status sensitive than the not-so-rich and the not-so-dignified. Status anxiety is then a painful consequence, resulting in many sleepless nights, as one either eats well or sleeps well. Even if status is not a major driving force, most of the rich would like to know, nonetheless, whether they are losing ground to other millionaires in their race for ever more wealth. And then there are all the other familiar questions of the rich, such as: where to draw a line between wealth and happiness, or between ethical and unethical business practices; whether current savings are sufficient to ensure an appropriate standard of living after retirement; how financial assets should be invested and fund managers managed; and how to engage in philanthropy later in life.

January
2008

ABSA Bank - Sectoral Financial Ratios, 1998-2007
Financial ratio analysis can be used to compare the performance of one company with that of another in the same sector, or to compare a company with the entire sector in which it operates, or even to compare various sectors with each other, as is the case in this publication. 
Financial ratios are calculated for each of thirty-seven JSE sectors over the past ten years, except for the banking and life assurance sectors. These ratios are divided into six categories: asset structure; funding structure; solvency and liquidity structure; profitability structure; trading activity structure; and share statistics.

September
2006

Absa Economic Research - International Asset Management: A South African Perspective 2006/2007

For years, South Africans were forced to keep their investment funds within the country's borders. Since 1994, the gradual relaxation of exchange control regulations has meant that risk and return could be optimised far better by exposure to the vast international markets instead of only local markets.
However, the global investment markets are fundamentally more complex than the local markets, because new factors have to be considered. For instance, currency and sovereign credit risks have to be faced virtually from the outset. Moreover, tax arbitrage, and therefore the role of tax havens (i.e. offshore financial centres), has to be carefully considered.
Although there are some fundamental differences between local and global fund management, these differences should not be exaggerated. In the case of both types of funds, the ultimate goal is to obtain an optimum mix between risk and return. An extreme view is that all portfolio optimisation techniques work according to the same basic principles, namely that tomorrow will be like yesterday and that the potential impact of hazards can be successfully minimised through asset diversification.
This publication addresses certain key aspects that serious international investors should have a knowledge of. These include their investment horizon, the risk-return trade-off, asset allocation and the importance of a reference currency, benchmarks and tracking errors, and various aspects pertaining to managed portfolios.
The analyses presented are based on modern portfolio analysis techniques and use data of the major industrial countries up to the end of 2005S.

April
2006

Banking Association SA - Research into Housing Supply
The Financial Sector Charter commits Financial Institutions to provide some R42 billion towards housing by the 31 December 2008, of which the vast majority is expected to be applied to mortgageable loans for housing units for households in the affordable housing sector (households with a maximum income of R7500). However, research conducted in 2005 by the Banking Association found that even with access to housing loans, there is very little affordable housing for prospective borrowers to buy – the research puts the shortage at about 650 000 affordable housing units, and reveals that only about 15 000 houses costing less than R200 000 are delivered annually. Simply, developers aren’t interested in delivering houses in a market where the risks are high and the returns are low. The banks argue that one of the major challenges facing South Africa is how to make the low cost housing market attractive to developers.

Cliffe Dekker Fuller Moore - Privatisation in South Africa
The stated policy of the South African Government is to privatise certain state-owned enterprises. This policy presents a unique opportunity for investors to become involved in established core businesses in South Africa. Naturally, it is essential that any such investment is structured appropriately and that due regard is had to the various regulatory requirements of the South African legal system. An introduction to these requirements is provided as well as a comprehensive overview of the areas of interest and concern to any investor.
  SA Chamber of Mines - Key mining economic indicators
Provides, inter alia, international precious metal prices on a daily basis. Spot gold prices in various countries. Prices of silver, platinum, palladium, antimony, iridium and rhodium. London Metal Exchange prices for copper, aluminium and nickel.

March
2003

ABSA Bank - Game Ranch Profitability in South Africa
Over the past few years game ranching in South Africa has become increasingly important in economic, tourist and ecological terms. 
Game ranching has many facets, for example, biological, ecological, tourist and financial factors have to be taken into account. This book focuses on the economics of game ranching, addressing game management issues together with financial implications.
The aim is to determine the financial viability of game ranches of different sizes in different regions.

Also see:

J du P Bothma (ed) - Game Ranch Management
Fourth edition, 2002, Published by Van Schaik 
This book is one of the most important reference works on southern African wildlife.
Contents
Part I: General guidelines
Part II: Game ranch planning
Part III: Animals and their characteristics
Part IV: Diseases and parasites of wild animals
Part V: Animal management and utilisation
Part VI: Habitat management
Part VII: Participating in rural development

    
Investment and trading books

Robert Colby - The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition
Provides an alphabetical and up-to-date listing of hundreds of important market indicators. It defines what each indicator is and explains the philosophy behind the indicator. This second edition is comprehensive, covering virtually every indicator.
Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone
Presents a way to gain a winner's mindset of specific beliefs and attitudes which are needed to make profitable trades and experience consistent success in the electronic trading markets. The psychological side of trading is the most critical to a successful trader.
Jack Schwager - Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders
Schwager pioneered the "interview" format trading guide, selecting the best candidates, asking the right questions, paring down their answers into useful, easy-to-apply concepts and practices. He gets the top names in the field to reveal their personal techniques across a wide range of trading disciplines. 
This is the third book in the series and covers new traders who've been interviewed. This third book complements the first, Market Wizards, and the second, The New Market Wizards.
Michael Covel - Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
Written for all professional and individual investors seeking more effective profit strategies, this title should be ideal for individual traders who self-manage their portfolios or for the individual investor searching for a new type of investment advisor.

Alexander Davidson & Alexander David - How to Win as a Stock Market Speculator
Reveals the secrets of making money as a stock market speculator. Offering trading methods for up and down markets, the guide equips the reader to trade like a professional, showing which financial instruments to use, and how to limit losses and maximize gains. Stressing the point that money management is the key to success, Davidson casts a professional eye over the choices traders must make: whether to go for CFDs, spread-betting, covered warrants, options or just straightforward share trading. He reveals how to profit from simple technical analysis and how to read between the lines in company accounts. There is also advice on how to get in early and make money through take-over speculation.
   
The above books and others available from Kalahari.net
   
Michael Coulson - An Insider's Guide to the Mining Sector:
How to make money from gold and mining shares
The prospect of instant riches gives the mining sector an obvious glamour. And when the mining sector begins to run it can be an awesome sight and the excitement generated can be every bit as seductive and heady as that which enveloped markets during the internet boom. But due to the counter-cyclical nature of many mining stocks, they can also offer a valuable refuge when stock markets turn down. In this book, Michael Coulson gives a masterly overview of the sector, explains both the rewards and the pitfalls of investing in mining shares and argues convincingly that mining should once again form a core sector for all investors. The book is for anyone interested in mining, and particularly mining as an investment. 
TheStreet.com 120x120 Free Trial Jim Cramer - The Street.com

Managing money with an open hand is hard. But, Jim Cramer is so committed to helping people learn that he created a charitable trust portfolio to show investors how and why he makes trades. For over 10 years Jim Cramer was a successful hedge fund manager and now he writes for RealMoney.com. Over the years he has developed a strict set of investing disciplines that have helped all kinds of people be successful through any market. He created a service called Action Alerts Plus, which allows people to follow along as he makes his own trades. 
Investors can request a free 14 Day Trial of Action Alerts Plus.

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Last modified: September 19, 2011

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