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Asset Prices, Returns and Investments
  

Topical: House prices dip marginally in 2009
According to Absa’s latest house price index, house prices continued to tick up in December, rising 5.6% y/y marking the fifth consecutive month of positive y/y growth in house prices. The latest figures show that the nominal prices of middle-segment housing in 2009 fell 0.2% following growth of 4.1% in 2008 and paint a picture of what has been a difficult year for the domestic residential housing market. While house prices have been rising on a m/m basis since May 2009, we note that the household sector is still experiencing some financial strain, with debt-to-disposable income levels currently near 80%, while real disposable income levels continue to fall. Furthermore, the fact that the SA economy shed nearly 1mn jobs in the first three quarters of 2009 (with some small losses expected in Q4 09) also suggests that, like many other sectors, the recovery in the housing market is likely to be somewhat protracted. That said, we look for the residential property market to improve gradually in 2010 on the back of better economic conditions, the lagged effect of lower interest rates and less restrictive credit conditions. We forecast nominal house prices to rise between 6% and 7% in 2010 as a result.

Further reading on on this section at the FSF Bookshop
e.g. David Darst,
The Art of Asset Allocation.

February
2010

Standard Bank - Residential Property Gauge  (PDF)
House price deflation - steady improvement off the bottom
Standard Bank’s property book for 2009 revealed an average annual decline of 4.2% in the median house price from-0.3% in 2008. The smoothed data yielded a rate of contraction of 3.7% y/y in December 2009, followed by a decline of 2.9% y/y in January 2010. This brings the number of monthly declines to 20 consecutive months. Significantly, the median house prices over the last four months indicated a steady, if slow, improvement in the property market. The smoothed growth rate for January shows that the value of the median residential properties financed by Standard Bank was R545 000. However, in real terms, using our estimate of the CPI in January to deflate nominal house price, the decline in real house prices comes to approximately 9.3% y/y. ... more

October
2009

ABSA Bank - Housing Review 2009 Q4  (PDF)
The latest quarterly Housing Review, presenting trends in house prices in various segments of the South African residential property market and geographical regions up to the third quarter of 2009.
Year-on-year nominal house price deflation, which commenced in late 2008, slowed down over the past few months. This came on the back of price inflation which occurred on a month-on-month basis since May this year. The expectation is for nominal price deflation to be less than 2% this year if the latest trends are to continue up to year-end. Next year is forecast to see annual house price inflation of between 2% and 3%, while prices are set to decline somewhat further in real terms. ... more
ABSA Bank - Property Trends
These brief publications provide periodic information on trends in the residential housing market, e.g: Property Investment; House Price Index; Building statistics; House Price Index; Mortgage advances.
Sharenet - [SA] share prices and trading
Sharenet has been providing JSE prices to South Africans since 1988 and has offered Internet trading since 1999. Our experience in this market is unrivaled – investors all over South Africa and the world have relied on us for nearly 20 years as their primary source of reliable financial information.
  FIN24.co.za - Prices and markets (domestic and international)
  Provides a mechanism for obtaining prices, company reports and other information on specific stocks and warrants traded on the JSE Securities Exchange. Information on currencies and the economy in general is also provided.
NB You need to register (no charge).
Data on all the indices can be obtained by signing up (free) as a user of the JSE Website.
For information about indices see JSE indices.
  South African Futures Exchange - Market Data and Statistics
 

SAFEX, which is now part of the JSE Securities Exchange, provides the latest financial and agricultural futures marked-to-market closing prices; data on financial and agricultural trading provided through links to files, in tabular form, that can be downloaded.

  Bond Market Exchange of South Africa - Bond Market Statistics
 

The Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA) lists rand-denominated debt securities issued by central and local government, public enterprises and major corporates.
BESA in collaboration with the Actuarial Society of South Africa has launched a series of bond indices, known as the Total Return Indices (TRIs).
Bond statistics are available on a daily and histotical basis.

Sharenet - Prices of SA listed bonds/gilts
A single table provides the code, name, yield and all-in and clean prices of bonds listed on the Bond Exchange of South Africa.
ACI - Association of Collective Investments
The Association of Collective Investments (ACI) is the body representing all collective investments (eg unit trusts) management companies. The Association provides, inter alia: unit trust classification; a unit trust directory; performance statistics; news and events; codes of practice; and information on the industry and education.
FindanAdvisor.co.za - South African Directory of financial planners and financial advisors
FindanAdvisor is an online directory of: Financial Services Board (FSB) approved financial advisors, financial planners, Certified Financial Planners (CFP s) and investment, retirement and insurance brokers. It is an independent directory and not affiliated in any way to any financial institution or product house. All listed Financial Advisors are accredited with the FSB.

July
2008

HB Falkena - Notes on Wealth Management  (PDF 600KB)
Every level of wealth creates its own specific problems. Although many people may think that a million dollars would solve most of their problems, millionaires themselves know better. For instance, the rich are generally more status sensitive than the not-so-rich and the not-so-dignified. Status anxiety is then a painful consequence, resulting in many sleepless nights, as one either eats well or sleeps well. Even if status is not a major driving force, most of the rich would like to know, nonetheless, whether they are losing ground to other millionaires in their race for ever more wealth. And then there are all the other familiar questions of the rich, such as: where to draw a line between wealth and happiness, or between ethical and unethical business practices; whether current savings are sufficient to ensure an appropriate standard of living after retirement; how financial assets should be invested and fund managers managed; and how to engage in philanthropy later in life.

January
2008

ABSA Bank - Sectoral Financial Ratios, 1998-2007
Financial ratio analysis can be used to compare the performance of one company with that of another in the same sector, or to compare a company with the entire sector in which it operates, or even to compare various sectors with each other, as is the case in this publication. 
Financial ratios are calculated for each of thirty-seven JSE sectors over the past ten years, except for the banking and life assurance sectors. These ratios are divided into six categories: asset structure; funding structure; solvency and liquidity structure; profitability structure; trading activity structure; and share statistics.

September
2006

Absa Economic Research - International Asset Management: A South African Perspective 2006/2007

For years, South Africans were forced to keep their investment funds within the country's borders. Since 1994, the gradual relaxation of exchange control regulations has meant that risk and return could be optimised far better by exposure to the vast international markets instead of only local markets.
However, the global investment markets are fundamentally more complex than the local markets, because new factors have to be considered. For instance, currency and sovereign credit risks have to be faced virtually from the outset. Moreover, tax arbitrage, and therefore the role of tax havens (i.e. offshore financial centres), has to be carefully considered.
Although there are some fundamental differences between local and global fund management, these differences should not be exaggerated. In the case of both types of funds, the ultimate goal is to obtain an optimum mix between risk and return. An extreme view is that all portfolio optimisation techniques work according to the same basic principles, namely that tomorrow will be like yesterday and that the potential impact of hazards can be successfully minimised through asset diversification.
This publication addresses certain key aspects that serious international investors should have a knowledge of. These include their investment horizon, the risk-return trade-off, asset allocation and the importance of a reference currency, benchmarks and tracking errors, and various aspects pertaining to managed portfolios.
The analyses presented are based on modern portfolio analysis techniques and use data of the major industrial countries up to the end of 2005S.

April
2006

Banking Association SA - Research into Housing Supply
The Financial Sector Charter commits Financial Institutions to provide some R42 billion towards housing by the 31 December 2008, of which the vast majority is expected to be applied to mortgageable loans for housing units for households in the affordable housing sector (households with a maximum income of R7500). However, research conducted in 2005 by the Banking Association found that even with access to housing loans, there is very little affordable housing for prospective borrowers to buy – the research puts the shortage at about 650 000 affordable housing units, and reveals that only about 15 000 houses costing less than R200 000 are delivered annually. Simply, developers aren’t interested in delivering houses in a market where the risks are high and the returns are low. The banks argue that one of the major challenges facing South Africa is how to make the low cost housing market attractive to developers.

Cliffe Dekker Fuller Moore - Privatisation in South Africa
The stated policy of the South African Government is to privatise certain state-owned enterprises. This policy presents a unique opportunity for investors to become involved in established core businesses in South Africa. Naturally, it is essential that any such investment is structured appropriately and that due regard is had to the various regulatory requirements of the South African legal system. An introduction to these requirements is provided as well as a comprehensive overview of the areas of interest and concern to any investor.
  SA Chamber of Mines - Key mining economic indicators
Provides, inter alia, international precious metal prices on a daily basis. Spot gold prices in various countries. Prices of silver, platinum, palladium, antimony, iridium and rhodium. London Metal Exchange prices for copper, aluminium and nickel.

March
2003

ABSA Bank - Game Ranch Profitability in South Africa
Over the past few years game ranching in South Africa has become increasingly important in economic, tourist and ecological terms. 
Game ranching has many facets, for example, biological, ecological, tourist and financial factors have to be taken into account. This book focuses on the economics of game ranching, addressing game management issues together with financial implications.
The aim is to determine the financial viability of game ranches of different sizes in different regions.

Also see:

J du P Bothma (ed) - Game Ranch Management
Fourth edition, 2002, Published by Van Schaik 
This book is one of the most important reference works on southern African wildlife.
Contents
Part I: General guidelines
Part II: Game ranch planning
Part III: Animals and their characteristics
Part IV: Diseases and parasites of wild animals
Part V: Animal management and utilisation
Part VI: Habitat management
Part VII: Participating in rural development

    
Investment and trading books

Robert Colby - The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition
Provides an alphabetical and up-to-date listing of hundreds of important market indicators. It defines what each indicator is and explains the philosophy behind the indicator. This second edition is comprehensive, covering virtually every indicator.
Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone
Presents a way to gain a winner's mindset of specific beliefs and attitudes which are needed to make profitable trades and experience consistent success in the electronic trading markets. The psychological side of trading is the most critical to a successful trader.
Jack Schwager - Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders
Schwager pioneered the "interview" format trading guide, selecting the best candidates, asking the right questions, paring down their answers into useful, easy-to-apply concepts and practices. He gets the top names in the field to reveal their personal techniques across a wide range of trading disciplines. 
This is the third book in the series and covers new traders who've been interviewed. This third book complements the first, Market Wizards, and the second, The New Market Wizards.
Michael Covel - Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
Written for all professional and individual investors seeking more effective profit strategies, this title should be ideal for individual traders who self-manage their portfolios or for the individual investor searching for a new type of investment advisor.

Alexander Davidson & Alexander David - How to Win as a Stock Market Speculator
Reveals the secrets of making money as a stock market speculator. Offering trading methods for up and down markets, the guide equips the reader to trade like a professional, showing which financial instruments to use, and how to limit losses and maximize gains. Stressing the point that money management is the key to success, Davidson casts a professional eye over the choices traders must make: whether to go for CFDs, spread-betting, covered warrants, options or just straightforward share trading. He reveals how to profit from simple technical analysis and how to read between the lines in company accounts. There is also advice on how to get in early and make money through take-over speculation.
   
The above books and others available from Kalahari.net
   
Michael Coulson - An Insider's Guide to the Mining Sector:
How to make money from gold and mining shares
The prospect of instant riches gives the mining sector an obvious glamour. And when the mining sector begins to run it can be an awesome sight and the excitement generated can be every bit as seductive and heady as that which enveloped markets during the internet boom. But due to the counter-cyclical nature of many mining stocks, they can also offer a valuable refuge when stock markets turn down. In this book, Michael Coulson gives a masterly overview of the sector, explains both the rewards and the pitfalls of investing in mining shares and argues convincingly that mining should once again form a core sector for all investors. The book is for anyone interested in mining, and particularly mining as an investment. 
TheStreet.com 120x120 Free Trial Jim Cramer - The Street.com

Managing money with an open hand is hard. But, Jim Cramer is so committed to helping people learn that he created a charitable trust portfolio to show investors how and why he makes trades. For over 10 years Jim Cramer was a successful hedge fund manager and now he writes for RealMoney.com. Over the years he has developed a strict set of investing disciplines that have helped all kinds of people be successful through any market. He created a service called Action Alerts Plus, which allows people to follow along as he makes his own trades. 
Investors can request a free 14 Day Trial of Action Alerts Plus.

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Last modified: February 03, 2010

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