Economic Data,
Forecasts and Events
Economic data and economic
information about South Africa and the region. Data releases,
financial market trends, economic
reviews and events, and forecasts. Economic indicators such as interest rates,
exchange rates, repo rate, interbank rate, forward rates, monetary
aggregates, consumer price index (CPI and CPIX) and producer price
index (PPI).
Reading: Zumanomics:
Which way to shared prosperity in South Africa? Challenge for new
government, Editor Raymond Parsons.
South Africa stands at an historical
political and economic crossroad in 2009. Globally the widespread
world recession has serious consequences for the slowing South
African economy.
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Standard
Bank provides a Calendar
 (PDF)
of the release dates of economic statistics for the
first quarter 2010 |
Economic
information is organised as follows:
 | Topical comment |
| Information provided daily
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| Information provided weekly
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| Information provided monthly
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| Information provided periodically
or on an ad hoc basis |
| Information provided quarterly
or longer
includes SA National Budget and SA Reserve
Bank Annual Review |
| Information provided as formatted downloads,
eg time series |
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Latest research
Economics Division
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Topical:
Confronting some of the major criticisms of
contemporary Sino-African ties
The intensity of China’s engagement of Africa over the past decade
has taken many by surprise, simultaneously igniting hopes for a
greater future for the continent and fears of the dangers of entering
yet another structurally imbalanced relationship which offers little
domestic value-add for Africa’s fragile economies. Indeed, China’s
engagement with Africa, which has been most pronounced since the turn
of the century, continues to lampoon vibrant and globally engaging
debate around the needs and challenges facing Africa’s ongoing
economic development. China, rapidly becoming Africa’s most
substantial commercial partner, has courted controversy in recent
years. Driving this side of the spectrum are allegations of China’s
unwillingness to ensure local beneficiation when extracting Africa’s
abundant natural resources, as well as Beijing’s strict policy of
non-interference in the domestic affairs of trading partner states,
some of which remain actively omitted from similar engagements with
Western partners owing to perceptions of domestic abuses of power. To
this end, this paper
looks at the following salient challenges to China’s activities in
Africa: Is China’s success simply based on its offering Africa a
more palatable economic ideology to the West? ... more
[Standard
Bank] |
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Daily
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The
Economist - Country
Briefing |
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Within weeks,
Jacob Zuma is set to become the most powerful man in Africa, a
continent of a billion souls that is still the poorest and, despite
recent improvements, the worst governed on the planet. South Africa
provides more than a third of the 48 sub-Saharan economies’ total
GDP. It is Africa’s sole member of the G20 group of influential
countries and packs a punch in global diplomacy. Its emergence from
the gruesome era of apartheid is a miracle of reconciliation. Africans
across the continent and oppressed peoples elsewhere still look to
South Africa’s leader as a beacon of hope.
This and more in The Economist Country
Briefing |
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SA Reserve Bank - Current Market Rates |
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A table of daily market rates and other
data over the past seven days. It includes the average
repo rate, marginal lending rate, interbank call rate and
other money market rates; liquidity requirements; capital
market yields on government stock; and nominal effective
exchange rates of the SA Rand. |
Weekly
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Standard
Bank - Weekly
Preview
(PDF)
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Supply-side
signalling more balanced recovery?
South Africa:
* Manufacturing advances to have continued in
January
Global:
* China consumer inflation rising
* Japan’s economic growth set for recovery
* UK manufacturing production to enter positive territory ... more |
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First
National Bank - Economic Comment |
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Weekly
comment provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
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Nedbank Group - Economic
Updates |
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Comment on economic indicators. |
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NedBank -
Economic
Monitor |
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Provides an
economic commentary with graphs; a domestic review over the previous week and
previews the week ahead. An international review is also provided. |
Monthly
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SA Reserve Bank - Monthly Release of Selected
Data |
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The data in this release are in tabular
form and represent an abstract of statistics published regularly in the Reserve Bank's
Quarterly Bulletin. The release is divided into sections covering: Money
and banking; Banks and mutual banks; International economic data;
Capital market; National government finance; and Economic indicators. The purpose of the Release is to
update selected monthly statistics between publications
of the Quarterly Bulletin. |
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First
National Bank - Big
Sky Country |
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Comment
that provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
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Standard
Bank - Macroeconomic
Forecast
(PDF)
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Financial
markets have recently taken their cues from positive macroeconomic
news flow, which, for the most part, has reflected a supply-side
response to the fact that an economic apocalypse was diverted by
aggressive government support.
The consensus prognosis suggests that the incremental return of
economic activity will enable agencies to gradually withdraw stimulus
impulses. However, at the dawn of a new decade, we enter a new world
where outlier events with extreme impact are increasingly plausible.
Sovereign debt vulnerabilities, the excessively aggressive or
miss-timed withdrawal of stimulus support and inflation in emerging
markets, are the most likely hurdles to this recovery cycle. During
February market jitters highlighted the overstretched position of
advanced economies government balance sheets, especially amid weak
underlying economic activity.
It is inevitable that a handover of economic momentum from the public
sector to the private sector – businesses and consumers – occurs
this year. The transition would always prove difficult owing to soft
economic underpinnings. However, for some mature economies, this
process has been accelerated by rapid fiscal deterioration.
... more |
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Nedbank Group - Facts
and Forecasts |
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Annual facts and forecasts of key economic variables. |
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First National Bank -
Popular Data |
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The
Popular Data section provides historical data relating to the SA
Economic Indicators (in MS Excel format). |
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Rand
Merchant Bank/First National Bank
- Picture SA |
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This monthly publication discusses
the various factors driving the South African economy. Topics such as
Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and The Exchange Rate are discussed
in this brief. Graphical representation is also supplied.
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Rand Merchant Bank/First National Bank - SA Perspectives |
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A monthly SA
Research Note providing
insights into economic, and economic policy, issues in South Africa. |
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Updated
monthly |
Standard
Bank - Foreign
Trade Alert |
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Trade
surplus surprises
The trade account, in an unexpected turn of events, registered a
surplus of R2.019bn in May from April’s trade deficit of R1.456bn as
exports reversed some of the declines that we have become accustomed
to of late. Furthermore, and unexpectedly, imports declined to its
lowest level since December 2006. While this may lift sentiment that
the string of trade deficits may just be behind as, it might not be
wise to count your chickens before they hatch. Economic developments
thus far this year are pointing the needle to further declines in
exports, by as much as 10%, which casts doubt on whether further
surpluses are in the pipeline. ... more |
Updated
monthly |
SA
Revenue Services - Trade Data |
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SARS
provides the following data
* Preliminary Trade Statistics (monthly, at the end of the month for
the previous month)
* Schedule 1 Part 1 - Ordinary Custom Duty
* South Africa's main trading partners: 1997 - 2007
* Detailed Bilateral Trade Data by Country
* World Zones by Month - Imports
* World Zones by Month - Exports
* Top 10 Commodities by value
* Description of the 23 Trade Sections
* Trade agreements |
Updated
monthly |
South
African Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SACCI - Trade
Conditions Survey
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SACCI releases a monthly Trade Conditions Survey.
This survey is conducted amongst businesses, it reflects a very recent
business assessment of the trade environment in the country. The
results from the survey are of benefit to all business decision
makers, economists and other analysts. Although the SATAI and SATEI
are the two most prominent indices of the survey, the overview of
trading conditions also reports on inventory holdings, new orders,
backlog on orders received, supplier deliveries, input and
selling-price movements, export and import activity of business, and
job creation activities and prospects. |
Periodically
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February
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Standard Bank -
The
Economy in 2010
(PDF 2,4 MB) |
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The recession is
dead. Long live the upswing! Much of the past two years were
unpleasant for much of humanity. While recessions are always traumatic
the memories of this wreck will linger, if not remain forever etched
in people’s minds.
The central metrics signalling the prospect of durable gains in global
prosperity will emanate from the labour market. This will also help to
reconcile the contrasting signals from Main Street (grinding,
unsynchronized recovery) and Wall Street (swift, healthy revival). For
the moment the former holds greater sway and is bitingly confirmed by
the still perilously soft US labour market. Nonetheless, 2010 will be
more agreeable even though the tide will rise slowly.
Notably, while governments generally shrank since the mid-1990s, they
grew bigger in this recession. In 2010, amid inflamed deficits and
debt, governments must function smarter and do more with less.
Naturally, it will be difficult to veer from stimulus to thrift and
remain geared for growth, but there really is no constructive
alternative. Also, bad economics will generally make for stirring
politics. For instance, expect regime change in Britain in May.
This year will be particularly momentous for the choices public and
private leadership make in redesigning the governance framework
embracing financial services. ... more |
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February
2010
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Nedbank Group - Guide
to the Economy |
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International
background and outlook
The recovery in the global economy became broaderbased in the second
half of the year. Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in both
developed and developing economies have stabilised the financial
system, helped a recovery in asset prices and encouraged stronger
activity. Although most are optimistic that the worst is now over,
question marks over the sustainability of the upswing remain. Firms
are reluctant to increase employment and there is a danger of setbacks
once fiscal stimulus starts to fade in developed economies. Elsewhere,
activity looks more firmly based, but there are also risks to the
outlook.
Domestic review and prospects
A rebound in manufacturing production in the third quarter signalled
the end of the recession. Exports are starting to respond to improved
conditions globally, and lower interest rates have taken some pressure
off balance sheets. However, economic activity remains very weak and
most households and businesses will feel that the downturn is still in
place until well into 2010. Consumers have been particularly badly
affected by the massive job losses, which have depressed incomes and
hurt confidence. The 2010 FIFA World Cup will help lift activity
levels as the year progresses, but the recovery is expected to be
slow. ... more |
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October
2009
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Standard Bank -
MTEF
October 2009
(PDF) |
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Medium Term
Budget Policy Statement and Medium Term Expenditure Framework
The new SA Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan,
delivered the first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) under
the new Presidency with grace. Acknowledging in the first few lines of
his speech that amid the challenging times facing the economy, there
is also vast opportunity to react boldly so as to overcome the
challenges facing the economy in this period. The Minister of Finance
had to deal with difficult economic, social and political issues in
preparing his first Medium Term Expenditure Framework. The economy is
in a severe recession, social problems seem to be growing and some new
policy directions had to be factored in. A delicate balancing act was
required. Like the rest of the world revenue streams have been under
tremendous strain in 2009/10, pushing up the deficit to 7.6% of GDP.
Over the next three years the deficit is budgeted to gradually decline
to 4.2% of GDP. Total consolidated expenditure is projected to
increase by 7.8% over the next three years. Furthermore a
reprioritisation of spending and the elimination of wasteful spending
also form part of the MTBPS. ... more |
April
2009
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SA Reserve Bank - Economic and Financial Data
for South Africa |
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A wide range of data is supplied in
tabular format and corresponds to the data described on
the IMF's Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). |
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August
2008
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Standard Bank -
Hardcover:
Africa infrastructure survey - harnessing local opinion and insight
(PDF) |
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For the countries
covered in Standard Bank’s African Infrastructure Survey to meet the
ambitious Millennium Development Goals, it is critical that their
respective economies experience periods of sustained pro-poor growth.
The survey results highlight various obstacles to economic growth and
diversification, most of which centres on social and economic
incentives offered to the private sector. Meanwhile, it was
unanimously recognised that these impediments to development are
further compounded by a broad-based inadequacy of economic
infrastructure – especially in transport and power – which
manifest in low levels of connectivity of people and markets. ... more |
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May
2008
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Standard
Bank - Supply-side
Gauge
(PDF)
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Economic
growth in the first quarter surprised on the downside, with the
weaker-than-expected quarterly performance largely ascribed to softer
economic activity in the largest sector of the economy, i.e. the
financial intermediation and business services sector, and a steeper
decline in value added by the electricity, gas and water sector. ... more |
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First National Bank
- The
Forecast |
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The Forecast
covers 5-year views for GDP, Inflation, Prime interest rate, the Rand
and the Balance-of-Payments. Also, there is a 12-month forward look
for CPI and PPI inflation. South Africa's short and long-term interest
rates are examined in Taylor's Rule and External SA Risk. |
Quarterly and longer
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February
2009 |
National
Treasury - National
Budget 2010: Budget Speech |
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The 2010
National Budget speech delivered by Pravin Gordhan, the Minister of
Finance, to Parliament on 17 February 2010. |
17
February
2009
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National
Treasury - National
Budget 2010 |
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The 2010 National
Budget Review provides an updated and more detailed account
of macroeconomic developments, an overview of trends in public
finances, a review of provincial and local government finances,
changes in medium term expenditure plans, revenue issues and tax
proposals. The Budget Review is compulsory reading for anyone
interested in fiscal policy and public finances in South Africa.
Also provided are the Estimates
of National Expenditure; Estimate
of National Revenue (PDF); A People's Guide to the Budget (PDF);
Budget Tax Proposals
(PDF) |
February
2010 |
SA
comment - National Budget 2010 |
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January
2010 |
Absa
- Quarterly
Economic
Perspective |
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International
summary:
| The global economic upturn has broadened as the
recovery seems to have taken hold and healing in the financial
sector has continued. |
| Countries in Asia which were first to emerge from
recession have completed their initial period of rapid growth and
are now slowing down, whilst the laggards in Europe and the US are
now just entering a period of maximum growth. |
| We continue to see an improvement in G3 growth
through the first half of 2010 with the pace of global economic
growth expected to slow later in 2010. |
| We see relatively little risk of a serious growth
disappointment, given the relative youth of the global expansion,
still depressed levels of cyclically sensitive sectors such as
automobiles and business investment, and the extreme ease of
policy settings everywhere. |
| Global inflation risks also seem muted at least
for the next year or so as excess capacity remains pervasive and
inflation tends to lag the growth cycle. |
Domestic summary:
| South Africa’s recession is officially over
with Q3 GDP showing a modest 0.9% q/q saar recovery. Despite the
relatively mild recession, the labour market adjustment has been
large and domestic demand is likely to remain very weak for some
time. |
| Sticky inflation and early signs of an economic
recovery lead us to believe that we have reached the end of the
rate easing cycle where monetary policy’s contribution to the
recovery has largely played out. We look for rates to remain at
current levels for some time with a gradual tightening cycle to
commence only in Q4 2010. |
| The rand remains well supported through a lower
current account deficit, strong portfolio inflows and general USD
weakness. We expect much of Q2’s improvement to be carried
through into the quarters ahead. |
| Fiscal trends have been less encouraging with
Treasury’s MTBPS looking for the 2009/10 budget deficit to
balloon to 7.6% of GDP (previous estimate: -3.9%). The
significantly higher than originally envisaged deficits now
projected throughout the MTBPS will sit uncomfortably with markets
in our view. |
... more |
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December
2009 |
SA Reserve Bank - Quarterly Bulletin |
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The global
economy, reflecting the impact of sustained fiscal and monetary
stimulation on an unprecedented scale, displayed clear signs of
revival in the third quarter of 2009. The improvement was widespread
with strong growth in the emerging economies of Asia, in particular, a
more moderate pick-up in activity in the United States of America (US)
and key economies in Europe, and a recovery in many of the
oil-exporting and other commodity-producing countries, buoyed by
stronger international commodity prices. Some indicators of
international trade volumes also started to edge higher.
At the same time, global inflation remained subdued,
partly on account of the deflationary forces arising from
exceptionally large output gaps and partly due to international
commodity prices – despite a significant recovery – nevertheless
remaining well below the peak levels recorded towards the middle of
2008. The vast majority of countries therefore maintained a
stimulatory macroeconomic policy stance. In a handful of countries,
however, the authorities felt that the recovery had progressed far
enough to take the first steps towards normalisation of policy
settings, and started to increase interest rates. ... more |
September
2009
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SA Reserve Bank - Annual
Economic Report - 2008/9
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The Bank has
diverse responsibilities and roles in both the domestic and
international arenas. These activities are highlighted in this report.
The overriding objective of the Bank remains the achievement and
maintenance of price stability, which it implements within an
inflation-targeting framework. Apart from monetary policy, the Bank is
also responsible for the production of notes and coin; oversight of
the national payment system; bank supervision; management of gold and
foreign-exchange reserves; and administration of exchange control
measures.
During the past year, the global financial crisis
meant that the Bank became more closely involved in international
forums, particularly the Group of Twenty (G-20), as part of a co-ordinated
global policy response to the crisis. The Bank has also maintained a
greater focus on financial stability in general. Fortunately, the
domestic financial sector has been relatively insulated from the
direct impacts of the global financial-sector crisis through
appropriate monitoring and supervision of the domestic banking sector.
The heightened uncertainty in international
financial markets also resulted in a highly synchronised global
economic downturn in the final quarter of 2008. South Africa was not
immune to these developments, and negative growth was experienced in
the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009. ... more |
September
2009
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SA Reserve Bank - Address
by Tito Mboweni, Governor, at the Ordinary General Meeting of
Shareholders of the Bank (September
2009) |
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The past year
has witnessed the most severe global economic downturn since the
1930s. At the time of the previous annual general meeting, the impact
of the financial market crisis was becoming evident in various
economies. However, at that stage the extent and depth of the global
recession were still to be realised. In response to the slowdown,
central banks and governments around the world have taken
unprecedented and unconventional steps to protect their banking
systems and economies. In South Africa the well-regulated banking
system was relatively insulated from the fallout. However, the
globalised nature of the downturn meant that the domestic economy was
not spared, and the resulting domestic recession required appropriate
fiscal and monetary policy responses.
These developments posed a new challenge to monetary
policy and resulted in a renewed focus on matters of financial
stability. Appropriate supervision and regulation of the domestic
banking sector and payment system have ensured an orderly financial
market environment. Although inflation was outside the target range,
the stance of monetary policy was loosened significantly in the face
of an expected moderation in inflation and a weakening economy.
Nevertheless, some upside risks to the inflation outlook remained and
this constrained the monetary policy response somewhat. Apart from
these concerns, the South African Reserve Bank (the Bank) also focused
on maintaining and improving its internal operations. ... more |
March
2009 |
Standard
Bank - Quarterly
Bulletin Flash
(PDF)
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The national accounts show
that the economy is entering a phase of low (and negative) growth
which will probably last for two or three quarters. The demand side of
the economy is very vulnerable with even fixed capital formation by
public corporations showing strain. Hopefully, this is only a
temporary set-back. Given the global and local uncertainty, risk
aversion and weak commodity prices, private sector investment will
come under increasing strain going forward. It is anticipated that
households will remain cautious as a result of the generally negative
sentiment currently prevailing. The deficit on the current account is
expected to narrow in 2009. Exports are expected to decline
substantially more than imports during the course of the year as
global economic conditions deepen and sap consumer demand. The deficit
on the current account is expected to narrow to 6.9% of GDP this year.
... more |
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National
Treasury - Previous
Budgets and related documents |
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Generally the budget the following is provided:
Budget Documents: National Budget Speech; National Budget Review;
National Expenditure Survey; People's Guide to the Budget; Provincial
Budgets.
Guide to Capital Gains Tax.
Estimate of Revenue for the Financial Year ending 31 March 2001.
Estimate of Expenditure to be defrayed from the National Revenue Fund. |
