Economic Data,
Forecasts and Events
Economic data and economic
information about South Africa and the region. Data releases,
financial market trends, economic
reviews and events, and forecasts. Economic indicators such as interest rates,
exchange rates, repo rate, interbank rate, forward rates, monetary
aggregates, consumer price index (CPI and CPIX) and producer price
index (PPI).
Reading: Zumanomics:
Which way to shared prosperity in South Africa? Challenge for new
government, Editor Raymond Parsons.
South Africa stands at an historical
political and economic crossroad in 2009. Globally the widespread
world recession has serious consequences for the slowing South
African economy.
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The new Financial Sector Forum Website
The new Financial Sector Forum at http://www.financialsectorforum.com
will, in time, consolidate two existing websites: The existing
Financial Sector Forum at http://www.finforum.co.za
(here) and South Africa: Financial Institutional Structure at http://reservebanksa.blogspot.com.
This action was necessitated by a lack of funding.
Recent posts on the new Financial
Sector Forum website include:
This site also links to sister website, The
Financial Regulation Forum at http://www.financialregulationforum.com
The Financial
Regulation Forum Website
Recent posts on the new Financial
Regulation Forum website include:
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Economic
information is organised as follows:
 | Topical comment |
| Information provided daily
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| Information provided weekly
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| Information provided monthly
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| Information provided periodically
or on an ad hoc basis |
| Information provided quarterly
or longer
includes SA National Budget and SA Reserve
Bank Annual Review |
| Information provided as formatted downloads,
eg time series |
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Latest research
Economics Division
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Topical:
Business Confidence Index
for February
Business confidence as measured by the South
African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) climbed to its
highest level since September 2008, climbing to 88.3 in March from
86.4 in February. The index is 5.1 index points higher than it was in
March 2010. Of the 13 sub-indices making up the headline index, 6 of
these contributed to the m/m uptick in the BCI, with continued strong
growth in retail sales, benign core inflation, increases in real
private sector borrowing and strong precious metals prices the key
drivers. The small uptick in the number of building plans passed also
was encouraging and had a positive impact on the March print. Although
it is too early to tell, it could suggest a turning point for the
construction sector, which continues to lag the recovery observed in
other facets of the economy. Components of the BCI that subtracted
from the headline figure were a higher number of company liquidations,
a lower import and export readings and lower domestic equity market
valuations in the month. ... [Absa
Bank] 0406 |
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Daily
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SA Reserve Bank - Current Market Rates |
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A table of daily market rates and other
data over the past seven days. It includes the average
repo rate, marginal lending rate, interbank call rate and
other money market rates; liquidity requirements; capital
market yields on government stock; and nominal effective
exchange rates of the SA Rand. |
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Absa
- SA
Morning Sheet |
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There
are two key data releases in South Africa that will be keenly watched
today. First, we receive net reserves for March at 08h00. Following
another month of volatile ZAR moves and mention by the Deputy Finance
Minister Nhlanhla Nene that the government has already spent in the
region of ZAR50bn in ‘stabilising the currency’ we think today’s
release will likely grab the market’s attention. Some intervention
activity by the SARB together with valuation adjustments (thanks to a
higher USD gold price and weaker USD against major currencies) should
push net reserves higher by USD700mn, in our view. This will take the
overall level of net reserves to USD45.5bn at end-March. Our forecast
is slightly above that of Bloomberg consensus which is looking for
USD45.2bn.
We also receive details on how the manufacturing
sector performed in February. Given the SA Reserve Bank’s continuous
mention of a rather ‘uneven’ recovery (i.e., GDP is consumer-led
while investment and production remain relatively listless) we think
such high frequency data, even if backward-looking, is important.
After growing only 1.3% y/y in January, we estimate that manufacturing
production growth improved to 4.5% y/y in February. Not only did the
PMI increase during February, but exports (vehicles specifically)
performed particularly well. Looking ahead, further positive readings
from both of these indicators in March point to another rise in
manufacturing production growth in the month. While Bloomberg
consensus expects a lower 3.5% y/y print for February, this must be
seen in context of a wide range of consensus estimates (1.3% to 4.5%).
We think the direction of manufacturing production (above or below the
1.3% y/y in January) will be telling of a how broad is the economy’s
growth trajectory. ... more
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Weekly
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First
National Bank - Economic Comment |
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Weekly
comment provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
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Nedbank Group - Economic
Updates |
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Comment on economic indicators. |
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NedBank -
Economic
Monitor |
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Provides an
economic commentary with graphs; a domestic review over the previous week and
previews the week ahead. An international review is also provided. |
Monthly
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SA Reserve Bank - Composite
business cycle indicators |
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The
composite leading business cycle indicators. |
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SA Reserve Bank - Monthly Release of Selected
Data |
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The data in this release are in tabular
form and represent an abstract of statistics published regularly in the Reserve Bank's
Quarterly Bulletin. The release is divided into sections covering: Money
and banking; Banks and mutual banks; International economic data;
Capital market; National government finance; and Economic indicators. The purpose of the Release is to
update selected monthly statistics between publications
of the Quarterly Bulletin. |
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First
National Bank - Big
Sky Country |
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Comment
that provides analysis of a topical nature on economic prospects,
data releases, global conditions and financial markets. |
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Nedbank Group - Facts
and Forecasts |
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Annual facts and forecasts of key economic variables. |
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First National Bank -
Popular Data |
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The
Popular Data section provides historical data relating to the SA
Economic Indicators (in MS Excel format). |
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Rand
Merchant Bank/First National Bank
- Picture SA |
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This monthly publication discusses
the various factors driving the South African economy. Topics such as
Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and The Exchange Rate are discussed
in this brief. Graphical representation is also supplied.
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Rand Merchant Bank/First National Bank - SA Perspectives |
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A monthly SA
Research Note providing
insights into economic, and economic policy, issues in South Africa. |
Updated
monthly |
SA
Revenue Services - Trade Data |
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SARS
provides the following data
* Preliminary Trade Statistics (monthly, at the end of the month for
the previous month)
* Schedule 1 Part 1 - Ordinary Custom Duty
* South Africa's main trading partners: 1997 - 2007
* Detailed Bilateral Trade Data by Country
* World Zones by Month - Imports
* World Zones by Month - Exports
* Top 10 Commodities by value
* Description of the 23 Trade Sections
* Trade agreements |
Updated
monthly |
South
African Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SACCI - Trade
Conditions Survey
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SACCI releases a monthly Trade Conditions Survey.
This survey is conducted amongst businesses, it reflects a very recent
business assessment of the trade environment in the country. The
results from the survey are of benefit to all business decision
makers, economists and other analysts. Although the SATAI and SATEI
are the two most prominent indices of the survey, the overview of
trading conditions also reports on inventory holdings, new orders,
backlog on orders received, supplier deliveries, input and
selling-price movements, export and import activity of business, and
job creation activities and prospects. |
Periodically
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February
2011
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Nedbank Group - Guide
to the Economy |
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International
background and outlook
The year has started with improved optimism following a difficult two
years. Markets are reflecting the better sentiment and there is hope
that a more normal pattern of growth will resume. However, the
financial crisis of 2008 has left its scars in developed countries,
with still high levels of personal indebtedness and a massive buildup
of government debt. Monetary polices remain very loose and there is a
real threat that inflation may return through rising commodity prices.
Credit is still constrained as banks come to terms with tighter
regulatory requirements. In the developing world conditions are
positive, but economies risk overheating.
Domestic review and prospects
Growth is set to rise above 3 % in 2011, helped by low interest rates,
easing debt levels, rising terms of trade and improved confidence.
However, manufacturing and mining will still be hampered by continued
rand strength, infrastructural constraints and mixed fortunes in key
trading partners. Although some improvement in employment levels is
likely, the labour market will remain relatively weak, reducing the
chances of a more broad-based recovery in consumer spending. ... more |
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July
2010
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OECD
- Economic
Survey of South Africa |
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South Africa
needs to boost growth through making better use of its resource
endowments. Despite a strong macroeconomic policy framework, job
creation and productivity growth remain too low to underpin sustained
rapid GDP per capita growth. The overarching challenge for South
Africa is to boost its trend growth rate and create jobs.
Growth has resumed, and is likely to strengthen this
year and next. The economy turned around in the second half of 2009.
House prices are picking up and leading indicators signalling growing
strength, external conditions have become more favourable.
Furthermore, the economy is being boosted by the staging of the World
Cup. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2010 and exceed potential in
2011.
South Africa needs to improve its environmental
performance. South Africa tends to score relatively poorly on broad
indices of environmental conditions, especially in the area of
greenhouse gas emissions. The need for progress on tackling climate
change has been recognised by the government, but little concrete
action has yet been.
Low employment remains the overriding policy
challenge. South Africa has an extreme and persistent low employment
problem, which interacts with other economic and social problems such
as inadequate education, poor health outcomes and crime. As in other
countries, vulnerable groups are most affected by unemployment, and in
South Africa the problem is most extreme for black youth. ... more |
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SA Reserve Bank - Economic and Financial Data
for South Africa |
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A wide range of data is supplied in
tabular format and corresponds to the data described on
the IMF's Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). |
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First National Bank
- The
Forecast |
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The Forecast
covers 5-year views for GDP, Inflation, Prime interest rate, the Rand
and the Balance-of-Payments. Also, there is a 12-month forward look
for CPI and PPI inflation. South Africa's short and long-term interest
rates are examined in Taylor's Rule and External SA Risk. |
Quarterly and longer
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March
2011 |
SA Reserve Bank - Quarterly Bulletin |
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The global economic recovery continued in the final
quarter of 2010 and in the early months of 2011, its momentum somewhat
stronger than many observers had expected. Major developing countries
maintained high rates of economic growth and, mindful of the dangers
of overheating and inflation, tightened their monetary policies. In
the major advanced economies the recovery remained fragile and the
stance of monetary policies remained accommodative in order to support
growth, although the earlier fiscal stimuli were reduced or withdrawn
in the interest of fiscal sustainability. International commodity
prices trended higher, supported by strong growth in the developing
countries and, in some instances, propelled by logistical and
geopolitical concerns arising from the upheaval in the political order
in a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
The spot price of crude oil rose as high as US$118 a barrel in late
February and early March 2011, while international food prices also
continued their rising trajectory, recently reaching their highest
level since January 1990. Under these circumstances consumer price
inflation trended higher, which resulted in a general trend towards
monetary policy tightening – the major advanced economies being the
exception so far, as noted above. In sub-Saharan Africa growth
prospects were bolstered by the buoyant prices of key export
commodities, the recovery in global demand, the improvement in
macroeconomic stability in general and, more structurally, the
increase in the proportion of national resources devoted to capital
formation. ... more |
March
2011 |
Absa
- Quarterly
Economic
Perspective |
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| From 2.8% GDP growth in 2010 we look for growth
to accelerate to improve to 3.8% y/y in 2011 and to 4.2% y/y in
2012. |
| A key feature of the current growth trajectory is
its unevenness, as consumers have done most of the work. Though
not surprising given high nominal wage settlements, low inflation
and 650bp in interest rate cuts (which together boosted real
incomes and reduced debt servicing costs) a sobering aspect of the
economic recovery has been persistent weakness in fixed investment
spending. |
| Evidence of uneven economic growth has shown up
in still-low corporate credit growth (household credit has
performed more strongly), choppy commercial vehicle sales
(passenger vehicle sales are doing well) and a substantial
narrowing of the current account deficit in Q4 10 (to 0.6% of GDP
thanks to high levels of corporate savings coupled with weak
investment). |
| We expect some improvement in fixed investment
spending through 2011 (business confidence is picking up and
inventory restocking is set to commence), but the real boost to
GDP from investment only comes in early-2012 to generate more
broadly-spread GDP growth. ... more |
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February
2011 |
National
Treasury - National
Budget 2011: Budget Speech |
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The 2011
National Budget speech delivered by Pravin Gordhan, the Minister of
Finance, to Parliament on 23 February 2011. |
23
February
2011
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National
Treasury - National
Budget 2011 |
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The 2011 National
Budget Review provides an updated and more detailed account
of macroeconomic developments, an overview of trends in public
finances, a review of provincial and local government finances,
changes in medium term expenditure plans, revenue issues and tax
proposals. The Budget Review is compulsory reading for anyone
interested in fiscal policy and public finances in South Africa.
Also provided are the Estimates
of National Expenditure; Estimate
of National Revenue (PDF); A People's Guide to the Budget (PDF);
Budget Tax Proposals
(PDF) |
December
2010
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SA Reserve Bank - Address
by Gill Marcus, Governor, at the Ordinary General Meeting of
Shareholders of the Bank (December
2010) |
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Today is an opportunity for us, together, to
consider a very serious overview of where the Bank stands in terms of
its internal organisation, its relationship with shareholders, and its
role in the South African economy as we move into what will
undoubtedly be a very challenging 2011 for the world and South Africa.
In the proceedings so far today we have endeavoured to address the
questions you have asked as they relate to the work of the Bank and
arising from the Annual Report and Financial Statements. While there
are still a number of matters that will be addressed towards the end
of the agenda, we trust that the open interaction marks a new
beginning in the relationship with Bank shareholders who, in our view,
have a vital role to play in ensuring independence, good governance
and accountability. ... more |
September
2010
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SA Reserve Bank - Annual
Economic Report - 2010
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Following the
severe recessionary conditions in the year to mid-2009 when the
financial crisis disrupted credit extension and paralysed trade and
income flows, the past year has been a period of somewhat uncertain
and uneven recovery in the global economy. Strongly stimulatory
monetary and fiscal policy measures were adopted in most parts of the
world in order to restore and nurture economic growth. Large fiscal
deficits, however, resulted in a rapid escalation of government debt
which triggered severe concerns about fiscal sustainability in a
number of countries with high sovereign debt ratios and structural
weaknesses. With investors fearing sovereign default, bond yields in
Greece and a number of other European countries surged in the first
four months of 2010. Calm was only restored in May after the European
authorities and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had announced a
large support package to provide overindebted governments with
breathing space while restoring fiscal discipline and implementing
structural reforms. At the Group of Twenty (G-20) Toronto summit held
in June 2010, governments also committed themselves to a programme of
reducing large fiscal deficits in a measured way over the medium term.
However, some concerns continued to linger regarding the ability of
governments to effectively implement austerity measures.
During the past year nominal interest rates remained
very low in most of the developed economies, in many cases
supplemented by the use of quantitative easing measures to expand
liquidity. While central bank balance sheets expanded strongly in this
process, private-banking-sector balance sheets were less responsive,
as credit extension in these mature economies remained weak.
Throughout the financial crisis, the associated
recession and the subsequent recovery, economic growth in
emerging-market and developing economies was more robust than in
developed economies, with China and India in particular maintaining
strong momentum. This provided some traction to help sustain the
underlying global economic recovery, which appeared to be losing some
momentum as the year progressed due to fragility in a number of
economies. ... more |
February
2010 |
SA
comment - National Budget 2010 |
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National
Treasury - Previous
Budgets and related documents |
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Generally the budget the following is provided:
Budget Documents: National Budget Speech; National Budget Review;
National Expenditure Survey; People's Guide to the Budget; Provincial
Budgets.
Guide to Capital Gains Tax.
Estimate of Revenue for the Financial Year ending 31 March 2001.
Estimate of Expenditure to be defrayed from the National Revenue Fund. |
